The latest casualty of the Great Recession may soon be the nation’s elderly. Cuts in government payments for patient care and less construction of new nursing homes are already taking a toll.

Add to this the aging baby boom generation and you have a worst-case scenario in which older people who need full-time care won’t be able to get it.

“We believe we’re at a tipping point,” says Mark Parkinson, head of the American Health Care Association (AHCA), which represents nursing homes.

If so, the timing couldn’t be worse. The first baby boomers hit age 65 last year. By 2030, 20 percent of the U.S. population will be at least 65, up from 13 percent today.

Number of Persons 65+ in the U.S. 1900 - 2030 (numbers in millions) - U.S. Administration on Aging

In that same period, the number of 85-year-olds will increase more than 50 percent and the number of 100-year-olds nearly triple. But the number of nursing homes dropped almost 9 percent from 2000 to 2009.

Nursing homes and hospitals are places that everyone wants to avoid … until they can’t. Most people say they want to age at home, but as retiring boomers get older, more will need the type of 24-hour care that only a nursing home or hospital can offer.

That’s because the prevalence of chronic illnesses like Alzheimer’s disease, cancer and diabetes increases with age. Fifty-five percent of all cancers are diagnosed in individuals 65 and older, and by 2030, 7.7 million of those 65 and older will suffer from Alzheimer’s, 50 percent more than today according to the Alzheimer’s Association.

Several trends are cutting into the number of nursing homes. Many homes were constructed during the 1960s under Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society programs. Often those homes are closed because they are old or, with their long hallways and large, multi-resident rooms, don’t fit what current residents want, says Robert Kramer of the National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing and Care Industry.

But the recession has made getting private financing for new nursing home construction tougher. From 2007 to 2011, the number of under-construction nursing home units (the sections of a facility that provide only nursing care) declined by a third.

“I cannot tell you of anyone who has actually developed a new skilled nursing facility in at least the last five years in California,” says Edward Steinfeldt, a consultant to developers of retirement housing and health care.

And existing nursing homes are struggling. They long have lost money on patients whose stays are covered by state-run Medicaid programs, which pay for long-term care for chronically or terminally ill patients who have run out of money.

According to a report this month by the AHCA, in 2011 nursing homes lost at least $20 per Medicaid resident per day nationwide. Total losses came to $6.3 billion nationally, the highest yearly total ever, with higher deficits to come next year, according to the report.

That’s a huge hit since Medicare payments are responsible for more than 20 percent of nursing home revenues. (Medicaid provides about 50 percent of revenues, and most of the rest comes from private long-term care insurance and people who pay out of pocket.)

For the 187-bed nonprofit Lutheran Home in Milwaukee, which has gross receipts of about $20 million, the Medicare slash will take $700,000 to $750,000 straight off the organization’s bottom line this year says CEO Scott McFadden.

The real estate crash has added to nursing homes’ budget crunch. Many clients sell their homes and use the money to pay out of pocket for long-term care services from a nursing home.

Related Article: Tools to help you choose a good nursing home.

By obliterating more than $8 trillion in home equity, the collapse cut the number of patients who can pay their own way. McFadden says that the private-paying clients his home serves used to run out of money in two or three years. Now they’re broke much more quickly.

Once they can’t pay, Medicaid picks up only some of the tab, and the Lutheran Home then starts losing money on them. It’s illegal for a Medicaid-certified nursing home to ask a patient to leave just because they run out of money.

Residing at a nursing home is not cheap. The median annual cost of a private U.S. nursing home room rose to $77,745 in 2011—up almost 30 percent from 2005.

People without chronic conditions have less costly options—it takes about $43,500 yearly to pay for a home health care aide who doesn’t have specialized medical skills, and $39,000 to live in an assisted living facility that provides help with activities of daily life like cooking, but doesn’t necessarily offer health care services.

If nursing homes continue to be squeezed, they may need to cut more staff. A November 2011 report by the University of California-San Francisco concluded that poor quality of care is already endemic in many nursing homes, especially the largest for-profit chains where staffing levels have been cut the deepest to save money.

Local Resources for nursing homes and senior care

• Aging & Disability Services – Seattle/King County: www.agingkingcounty.org
• Aging & Disability Services Administration – Washington State: www.aasa.dshs.wa.gov
• Commission on Accreditation of Nursing Home Facilities: www.carf.org
• Eldercare Locator: www.eldercare.gov/Eldercare.NET/Public/Home.aspx
• Long-term Care Information: www.longtermcare.gov
• Medicare’s Nursing Home Compare service.
• Medicare: Alternatives to Nursing Home Care

Parkinson maintains that so far, homes in his association are keeping up their level of service with less money by eliminating managers, freezing wages, and cutting capital improvements like painting walls and replacing carpets—anything to avoid laying off caregiver staff.

Bill Mulligan, a managing director at Ziegler Capital Management, which provides low-cost financing for nursing home developments, argues that given the decreasing supply and rising demand, nursing homes are still a good investment.

“The demographics are going to level off the number [of homes], maybe even increase it at some point,” he says. But Steinfeldt, who also works with developers, has little confidence in their profitability: “Why would you go into a business that can’t cover its costs?”

If major shortages of nursing home space do surface, they’ll likely show up in urban and high-poverty areas first. Widespread waiting lists have already been reported in Tallahassee in Florida, Rapid City in South Dakota, and San Francisco. Homes also have been closing in poor neighborhoods—a study published last year in the Archives of Internal Medicine showed that nursing homes shut down there more often than elsewhere (the hardest hit cities were New Orleans, Oklahoma City, San Francisco, and Dallas).

And Medicaid patients may have an increasingly hard time finding nursing homes that will take them–Kramer says when homes replace their old buildings, they often cut the number of beds to make space for more private rooms and sophisticated medical facilities that can attract the higher paying Medicare and private-pay clients.

“Every adult is going to face this nursing home crisis in some way, whether it’s through their own care or the care of loved ones,” says McFadden. “Ignoring it is not going to make it better.”

This article was reprinted from kaiserhealthnews.org with permission from the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. Kaiser Health News, an editorially independent news service, is a program of the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonpartisan health care policy research organization unaffiliated with Kaiser Permanente.

Questions to ask before you buy long-term care insurance

By Caroline E. Mayer
This story was produced in collaboration with 

In the last years of Martin Privot’s life, his family had to start selling his assets to pay for his nursing home costs. “He needed 24-hour care and couldn’t be left alone,” recalls his daughter Toni Footer. “My biggest fear was we would run [through his money] and wouldn’t be able to provide the care that he needed.”

Privot died in 2008, from post-surgical complications and other ailments, before all his assets were depleted. Yet Footer, 61, says her dad’s experience “reinforced my already strong feelings that long-term-care [insurance] is a necessity.”

The Rockville, Md., resident says she pays about $2,500 every year for such coverage for herself. “It’s expensive — in fact, it’s gone up twice — but it’s worth every penny. It provides a peace of mind that my family won’t have to struggle to find money to pay for my care.”

Coverage fell short

Mary McClelland came to the opposite conclusion after seeing how her mother’s expenses were often deemed exempt from coverage.

Her mother, Ruth Mezick, purchased long-term-care, or LTC, insurance in 1990 at age 78 when she was in fairly good health, paying an annual premium of $2,827 until she died 11 years later. In her mid-80s, her health began to deteriorate, and she spent time in a nursing home, at home with help and in assisted living.

“She was never in one place long enough to qualify. She ended up getting about 10 days’ coverage, worth about $1,000,” says McClelland, who lives in Falls Church, Va. “That was a lesson to me; I decided it doesn’t always pay off.”

The question of whether to get long-term care insurance bedevils consumers and their advisers. Unlike medical insurance, it is intended primarily to cover people who need assistance with so-called activities of daily living — for example, the care of a dementia patient or someone recovering from a broken hip.

Even advocates acknowledge that it isn’t for everyone. Jesse Slome, executive director of the American Association for Long-Term Care Insurance, an industry group, sums it up well: “Long-term care is a universal issue facing all Americans who are getting older. But long-term-care insurance is not a universal solution.”

So how great is the need for such coverage? It depends on how you look at the data. “One in two Americans are likely to need long-term-care services sometime in their lives,” says Amy Pahl, a consulting actuary for Milliman Inc., a leading actuarial and consulting company.

However, Pahl adds, of those who might need long-term care, about a third will not meet the most common deductible period of 90 days because they will either die or recover before then.

To determine if a long-term-care policy makes sense for you, it is important to understand how the coverage works and what’s available.

Don’t Think Medicare Will Cover You

Most standard health insurance plans do not cover long-term care. Nor does Medicare or insurance policies that supplement Medicare.

Medicaid, however, is the largest source of coverage for long-term care. The program pays for more than two-thirds of nursing home residents, according to data from the Kaiser Family Foundation. (KHN is an editorially independent program of the foundation.)

But Medicaid comes with significant limitations. The choice of facilities that accept Medicaid is narrow, and the program is restricted to people with extremely limited income and virtually no resources, which forces middle-income consumers to spend down their assets if they want to qualify.

“Medicaid is supposed to be a safety net, but unfortunately it rests just about a half-inch off the floor,” says Tom West, a Northern Virginia financial adviser and long-term-care expert.

Yet Kansas Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger cautions that long-term care policies may not be a good investment for some people. “It’s mostly a policy to protect your assets [so you don't have to sell everything to pay for care] in case you get sick. If you don’t have assets to protect, then you shouldn’t be buying it.”

But even those with few assets might consider some protection because it will allow them more flexibility than Medicaid if they need to choose a nursing home.

How The Coverage Works

Typically, a policy pays a fixed daily benefit ($150 is common) for a certain period of time (often three to five years) starting at a specified time (90 days is common) after the beneficiary becomes disabled.

The policy covers nursing home expenses, assisted living charges or less costly in-home-care bills.

Many policies also allow the initial fixed daily benefit to rise 3 or 5 percent annually to keep up with health-care costs. The policyholder agrees to a premium that can increase only if the change is approved by state regulators.

Such increases have occurred frequently in recent years and, as a result, once-flat premiums have risen sharply. So have nursing home costs, which averaged about $214 a day — or more than $78,000 annually — for a semi-private room last year, according to a national survey by the insurer MetLife.

“Long-term care insurance keeps you from being dependent on the government or relatives and it provides liquidity, even for people who have a lot of assets,” says Rockville financial planner Arthur Stein. “You don’t have to rush and sell assets in a down market, like today’s, to cover health costs.”

As people’s needs have changed, long-term care policies have expanded to cover assisted living and home care; some new policies are flexible enough to anticipate technologies that don’t yet exist, such as robotic care.

“The policies have become very innovative,” says Slome. “Today you can go in and design coverage for particular needs and desires; you can even buy long-term-care insurance to enable you to get your care on a cruise line if you want it — and can afford it.”

Today’s policies can also allow couples to share benefits, so a husband and wife can each buy a shorter-term policy, for example three years of benefits. About 70 percent of coverage today is sold to couples, Slome said.

If it turns out that the husband needs more than three years’ coverage, he can tap into his wife’s benefit pool. And in some policies, if the husband completely exhausts the couple’s coverage, the wife may still receive some nominal benefits if she needs care, too.

Local resources:

At the end of 2010, about 7 million Americans had long-term care insurance, according to LIMRA, an association of life insurance and financial service companies. About 422,000 new policies were written in 2010. About 56 percent were sold individually, with the rest sold through employer- or association-sponsored sales.

The 2010 health-care law has a provision creating a voluntary, long-term care insurance program. However, in October, the Obama administration announced it would not implement the provision (called the CLASS Act) because it was financially unsustainable.

According to Slome, the average age of the buyer is 57, with three-quarters of the policies written when purchasers are between 45 and 64.

When buying insurance, the younger the consumer, the lower the annual premiums. Today, according to Slome’s association, a 55-year-old couple in generally good health can expect to pay $2,675 a year for $338,000 of benefits; that figure would grow to $800,000 by the time they reach 80 if the policy contained a 3 percent annual compounded escalation clause.

If they are 65, however, that same policy would cost $4,660 a year and grow to only $527,000 in coverage when they are 80.

For Washington area residents, even that coverage can be less than needed. The Guide to Retirement Living SourceBook, a comprehensive listing of retirement community, nursing home, assisted living and rehab facilities and home-care options in the area, puts the daily local cost per person of nursing home care at $235 to $304, or nearly $86,000 to $110,000 a year. Daily assisted living costs run between $108 and $162. (The SourceBook is owned by The Washington Post Co.)

Steep Rate Increases

One of the key concerns among consumers is the rise of premiums.

“It’s probably the most frequent complaint I hear,” says Praeger, who heads the National Association of Insurance Commissioners’ health and managed care committee. “The problem is, the older policies weren’t priced right to begin with. Companies expected about 8 percent of customers to stop paying their premiums, when, in fact the lapse rate is closer to 2 percent.”

That meant the insurers had to cover more beneficiaries than they expected at a time when the economic downturn has meant less return on their investments.

Praeger acknowledges that rate increase requests have posed a dilemma for insurance commissioners. “If we don’t give them the rate increase they need, the insurance carriers could become financially impaired, and that doesn’t help people,” she says.

In fact, in recent years, a number of companies have stopped selling policies. As a result, she adds, it’s hard to turn the increases down.

The policies can be very complicated, and Praeger advises consumers to consult with their accountant, attorney or other trusted financial adviser before purchasing a policy. “It’s important  to understand what you’re buying, what the benefits are. It’s very complicated so work with someone you know and trust if you want to buy a policy.”

This article was reprinted from kaiserhealthnews.org with permission from the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. Kaiser Health News, an editorially independent news service, is a program of the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonpartisan health care policy research organization unaffiliated with Kaiser Permanente.

By Caroline E. Mayer

Determine if you qualify financially

Washington state has prepared a guide to buying long-term care insurance

Don’t buy if the out-of-pocket cost for the coverage would be more than you can afford. Consumer Reports advises people that if their net worth, excluding their home, is below $300,000, long-term care insurance is not a good buy for them.

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners also recommends that consumers spend no more than 5 percent of their income on a long-term care policy.

If you need long-term care but have few financial resources, Medicaid should quickly kick in to pay, although that will probably limit your choices for care.

On the other hand, if you have a lot of resources (some financial advisers put that threshold at $2 million), you may be able to self-insure and pay the costs as they arise, thereby eliminating the need to buy a policy.

Shop around.

Unlike car insurance where you can switch carriers easily, it can be expensive to change long-term care policies because the premiums increase as you age and you lose the investments already made. Comparison shopping is critical.

Some companies and associations (such as alumni groups and AARP) offer group policies with relatively liberal eligibility, making it easier to obtain coverage if the policyholder has any health issues.

However, these policies may have more limited benefits than individually purchased plans.

If you are young or in excellent health, a group plan may also be more expensive; you may end up paying more to subsidize your less healthy peers.

And if you are certain you want LTC insurance, the younger you are, the better. Your annual premiums will be smaller, and you have less chance of being denied for health reasons.

Know what’s covered.

Policies differ greatly so know what you are buying:

• What services are covered?
• How long is the disability period before benefits kick in and what happens if you move from one facility to another?
• How much does the policy pay per day for nursing home care, home-health care and assisted living?
• How long will benefits last?
• Is there an inflation adjustment that anticipates rising medical costs as you age?
• How long are benefits extended (one, three or five years, or indefinitely)?
• Who determines benefit eligibility — your doctor, or the insurance company’s doctor — and on what basis?
• Are preexisting conditions excluded?
• Does the policy cover mental or nervous disorders, alcoholism, drug abuse or self-inflicted injuries?

The National Association of Insurance Commissioners advises consumers to look for policies that include at least one year of nursing home or home health care coverage, including intermediate and custodial care; coverage for Alzheimer’s disease; inflation protection; a guarantee that the policy cannot be terminated because you get older or your health deteriorates; no requirement that the beneficiary has to first be hospitalized to receive benefits and a 30-day cancellation period after purchase.

Check out the insurance company.

Review a carrier’s record with your state insurance commissioner’s office. Find out how long it has been in business its complaint record and history of raising rates. Stick with a company that has an A financial rating.

Also, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners and the American Association for Long-Term Care Insurance have consumer guides on their Web sites.

The Department of Health and Human Services provides extensive information on it’s website, longtermcare.gov.

This article was reprinted from kaiserhealthnews.org with permission from the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. Kaiser Health News, an editorially independent news service, is a program of the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonpartisan health care policy research organization unaffiliated with Kaiser Permanente.

Every week, reporter Jessica Marcy selects interesting reads from around the Web.

The New York Times Magazine: A Drug That Wakes The Near Dead

Zolpidem Photo by Miserlou via Wikipedia

The heart attacks never came. Four days later, Chris woke up. It was not the awakening of Hollywood movies in which the patient comes to, just as he was, speaking full sentences and completely mobile.

Three years later, Chris still cannot talk. Although he breathes on his own, his lungs battle a steady barrage of infections; a feeding tube provides all his sustenance, and his muscles have contracted into short, twisted knots. He can move only the slightest bit. … Still, Wayne and Judy say that his cognition is improving. … Convinced that the son they know and love is still “in there,”

Chris’s parents have spent the past three years searching for a way to bring him back out. So far, their best hope has come from an unlikely source: Ambien. A growing body of case reports suggests that the popular sleep aid can have a profound — and paradoxical — effect on patients like Chris.

Rather than put them to sleep, both Ambien and its generic twin, zolpidem, appear to awaken at least some of them. The early reports were so pronounced that until recently, doctors had a hard time believing them.

Only now, more than a decade after the initial discovery, are they taking a closer look (Jeneen Interlandi, 12/1).

Image by Miserlou via Wikipedia — Creative Commons license

The Weekly Standard: Romneycare And Abortion

Mitt Romney by Jessica Rinaldi

Mitt Romney erased any doubt that he’s playing to win the Iowa caucuses when he rolled out his first campaign ads in the Hawkeye State last week. A glossy paper mailer pitched Romney to socially conservative Iowans as “the strongest Republican to beat Barack Obama and protect our values.”

Romney’s “pro-life,” “pro-marriage,” and “pro-family” credentials were the three bullet points. “Mitt Romney lives his values,” read the “pro-family” text, as reported by the Des Moines Register. … Romney doesn’t need to win Iowa’s social conservative activists, but he does need to allay the concerns of enough social conservatives to win the state—and the nomination.

Vander Plaats says that one big stumbling block for Romney is the Massachusetts health care law’s coverage of elective abortions. … Taxpayer funding of abortion is highly unpopular among the general electorate and outright toxic with Republicans.

Voters opposed public funding of abortion by 72 percent to 23 percent in a 2009 Quinnipiac poll. Republicans opposed it by an eye-popping 91 percent to 5 percent. … The question for socially conservative Republicans isn’t whether Romney’s perfect—it’s compared to what (John McCormack, 12/12).

Photo: Jessica Rinaldi via Wikipedia under Creative Commons license.

Huffington Post: Low Birthweight May Take A Toll On Cognitive Abilities Later In Life

At just 2 pounds, 15 ounces, Deb Discenza’s daughter was what doctors and researchers consider a very low-birthweight baby. Discenza, who is co-founder of PreemieWorld and author of “The Preemie Parent’s Survival Guide to the NICU,” said she received ample information and that doctors gave her daughter plenty of care.

But one area that they virtually ignored was the potential impact her daughter’s small size at birth might have on her cognitive abilities down the road. … But eight years later, that may finally change. A new, Finland-based study published in the journal Neurology on Monday suggests that very low-birthweight babies — those under 3.3 pounds — scored lower than normal birthweight babies when researchers considered their general intelligence, attention, visual memory and executive functioning as adults.

The latest report joins prior studies that have suggested that severely preterm babies do worse on neurocognitive tests.

To look at the potential impact of birthweight on the brain, the authors of the new study compared approximately 100 adults with very low birthweight and approximately 100 who had not had very low birthweight (Catherine Pearson, 12/5).

American Medical News: How Technology Can Connect Doctors And Caregivers

With more than 29% of the U.S. population acting as a caregiver to someone else, chances are that physicians eventually will be faced, as Dr. Manaker is, with questions about how they can work with caregivers to ensure the health of the person receiving care. The majority of caregivers spend an average of 20 hours per week providing care, in addition to holding down a full-time job.

To help make things more efficient, many are turning to technology that not only will supplement the care they are providing in person, but also will help them stay organized and connected with the care recipient’s physicians or fellow caregivers.

The more physicians can help get the needed technology to caregivers, experts say, the easier those caregivers’ lives will be.

Likewise, the more engaged the caregiver is, the better the outcomes for patients. … A study published in January by the National Alliance for Caregiving and UnitedHealthcare found that caregivers think technology can help save time (77%), manage the logistics of caregiving more easily (76%), increase feelings of effectiveness as a caregiver (74%), reduce stress (74%) and make a care recipient feel safer (75%) (Pamela Lewis Dolan, 12/5).

Huffington Post: Trisomy 18: What Is The Disease Affecting Rick Santorum’s Daughter?

Few politicians have wed their political and family lives quite like GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum. Frequently hitting the campaign trail with his wife and children by his side, the father-of-seven has spoken publicly and intimately about tragedies his family has faced over the years, including a stillborn baby that became the focus of a 2005 Washington Post article.

Now the Santorum family is faced with another tragedy: the life-threatening illness of their 3-year-old daughter Bella, who suffers from Trisomy 18.

The genetic disorder is in the same category of the disease affecting Sarah Palin’s son Trig, who was born with Trisomy 21, or Down Syndrome.

Like Trig Palin, Bella Santorum has become a central figure in her parent’s presidential campaign, inspiring both praise for Santorum and criticism from those who believe he may be using her condition to further his agenda of fighting healthcare reform legislation (Jocelyn Richard, 12/5).

This article was reprinted from kaiserhealthnews.org with permission from the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. Kaiser Health News, an editorially independent news service, is a program of the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonpartisan health care policy research organization unaffiliated with Kaiser Permanente.

The University of Washington’s DO-IT Scholars program is inviting applications from Washington state high school sophomores and juniors with disabilities who are interested in preparing for college and challenging careers.

DO-IT, which stands for Disabilities, Opportunities, Internetworking and Technology, introduces high school students with disabilities to technology, peer support and work-based learning in an effort to help them be successful in a college environment.

Between 15 and 20 students are selected each year.

DO-IT is seeking students who:

• Are high school sophomores or juniors.

• Have an aptitude and interest in attending college.

• Have a significant disability.

• Want to meet other college-bound students with disabilities.

Selected applicants will travel to Seattle over three summers to take part in a one- or two-week program in which they participate in academic lectures and labs; live in residence halls; and practice skills that will help them become independent and successful in college.

Participants are loaned laptop computers, software and adaptive technology for long-term use in their homes and at school or work.

This technology enables them to continue to network online with peers, DO-IT staff and DO-IT mentors, many of whom are working professionals with disabilities.

At summer study sessions, students will learn about college selection, career options, technology and self-advocacy. Living in dormitories and navigating the campus also helps them get an early taste of college life.

Meals, housing and accommodation are covered. Primary funding for DO-IT is provided by the National Science Foundation, the State of Washington, and the U.S. Department of Education.

“Some young people with disabilities have expectations that are lower than they need to be,” said Sheryl Burgstahler, director of accessible technologies in UW Information Technology and founder and director of DO-IT. “We try to change that. Our focus is on the use of empowering technology and teaching students the skills they need to succeed in challenging careers.”

Students are encouraged to apply by January 10, 2012, but enrollment continues until all positions are filled. For more information or application materials, contact the DO-IT office at 206-685-3648 (V/TTY), or download forms at http://www.washington.edu/doit/Programs/scholar.html.