WHO: H1N1 flu could infect 2 billion worldwide
If the H1N1 influenza spreads outside of North America and becomes a pandemic as many as 2 billion people could become infected, Dr. Keiji Fukuda Assistant Director-General for Health Security and Environment for the World Health Organization said Thursday.
So far, however, transmission of the virus appears to be primarily limited to North America and in most cases infections have been mild, said Dr. Fukuda in a Webcast press briefing from Geneva.
Nevertheless, WHO will continue to watch the virus carefully, Dr. Fukuda said. ”One of the questions is will it go to the Southern Hemisphere and, if it does, what will happen there,” he said .
Confirmed H1N1 Flu Cases and Deaths Reported to WHO as of May 7
Dr. Keiji Fukuda
In the past, some flus that have been mild in the developed world have proven to be more severe in the developing world, he said. “This is a very, very big concern for us.”
One reason influenza can be more serious in the developing world is there are large populations that, because of poverty, malnutrition or the presence prior conditions, such as HIV infection, may be more vulnerable to the new virus, Dr. Fukuda said.
Another concern is that the virus could mutate to become more virulent, he said.
“One of the absolute statements you can make about influenza viruses is that they change,” he said. “They undergo mutations: sometimes genes inside the virus change; sometimes the virus exchanges genes with other influenza viruses creating a new hybrid.”
Not all changes necessarily mean the virus becomes more dangerous, he added.
“A lot of times these changes dont make any real difference in that they don’t make it more virulent, they don’t make it more transmissible,” he said. “But sometimes those changes make a large difference.”
Before coming to WHO, Dr Fukuda was Chief of the Epidemiology Unit, Influenza Branch at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States.
To learn more:
- Listen online to the WHO press briefing.
Category: Influenza
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